First of all, I don't think that flash is going anywhere anytime soon.
While there are a lot more mobile devices out there that do run flash poorly, there are still
millions of websites with flash-rich content.
Along with that, there are over
several hundred thousand flash based games and animations already on the web. Everyday more and more flash based games, flash based animations are being created by developers. Again, so is Adobe just going to abandon all this? Well Nintendo isn't making 8 bit games anymore either, right? Not so fast. The web is a lot different than a game console. For example, HTML has been around since the birth of the web. HTML fundamentally has not changed since the mid 90's. It was expanded on not changed. Browsers got better and allowed for more add-ons but the fundamentals are still there. So why would Adobe simply say goodbye to Flash? It doesn't make sense. People will be playing flash games for years to come on PC's even though there are more tablets.
Currently in 2012, there have been benchmarks done and HTML5 runs even more poorly than flash. One advantage that I feel Adobe Flash currently has is that it is simply much faster than HTML5's and Javascript. It uses less CPU processing and memory. Flash is based off the C++ Object Oriented Language and that in of itself is much faster than Javascript. It may take standard PC computers another 5 to 10 years for processing and graphics speed for HTML5 to get to what Flash can do today in 2012. So in that time frame don't you think mobile devices will also pick up speed and that flash content will run better on them?
If you want to see another example of flash vs. html you can go to our front page animation and compare for yourself:
Also in that time don't you think there will be just that much more flash based content on the web? Don't you think that maybe Adobe will come out with another way to deliver Flash based content to mobile devices? If they do not, they will lose a lot of money. It comes down to the all mighty dollar and to simply abandon it would not be a good business decision, at least not one I would make.
Are they just going to forget about the developers when they can offer Flash Professional upgrades and new releases to them and make more money? If I was running the company, I wouldn't just abandon the existing market place? That is like throwing money down the drain and certainly doesn't seem like a wise decision.
One of the biggest complaints by Apple was that flash is proprietary and that is unfair to the web. Well, ok, you can make that argument but in order to make a game for the iPad or iPhone, you also need to have proprietary software and a Mac. So they are just being hypocritical in my opinion. Mac's aren't cheap. Now I am not against phone and tablet applications by no means but quite frankly, a lot of good iPhone and iPad games also run slowly because the lack of CPU power currently!
Currently the demand for Adobe's creative suite is extremely high. If they were going out of business then they would not be releasing new version of their software. They may adjust their software to work with different platforms like HTML5 so that in the event that when someday HTML5 will perform what Flash can do today then developers have multiple options. To me, it sounds like Adobe is preparing for the future not abandoning it!
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Here what I feel is going to happen. Tablet devices are only going to get faster and more efficient as technology progresses. When this happens software from a standard Microsoft operating system will also run faster and with less battery power. Microsoft also released it's tablet called the Windows Surface which also supports Adobe Flash. Flash will eventually work on these devices with little or no effort. Right now that is not the case, but be sure technology and hardware always improves, it has to! It is just the way industry works. When that does, one way or another, somewhere or someone will have ways of continuing to run Adobe flash content and all the existing games, applications and animations that are already out there on the internet!
Update 08/2017: Basically Adobe says they are totally discontinuing the flash player as of 12/31/2020. Looks like Steve Jobs got the victory after all since his famous 2010 letter as this will mean the end of Adobe Flash. Flash was created by a company called MacroMedia that brought animation and video to the web way back when the web browser couldn't do this. Unfortunately, there were security issues and they never made a light version for iOS. So here we are with the possibility that all those wonderful thousands of flash games can possibly be vanquished out of existence forever ... unless the developer converts their online content to HTML5 and java-script!
RIP Adobe Flash 2020. Here is a follow up article of how we may be a service to you
Convert Adobe Flash to HTML5